South Africa tends to take us to the edge of an abyss, let us hover there for a terrifying moment, only to pull us back laughing wickedly. Take this past year: In May, we stood before a winter of literal darkness as we confronted grid collapse; we then faced potential sanctions from the international community over alleged arms deals with Russia; and all the while, there was a leadership vacuum, with the president seemingly unperturbed by events.
Now, a year later, we find ourselves in a different position. We haven’t had a single day of loadshedding for six months. We’ve survived a peaceful handover of power by the liberation movement to a government of national unity. There is renewed energy in government, as non-ANC ministers are keen to show they can make a difference. Cooperation between the private sector and the government is gaining momentum and starting to bear fruit - one example being the privatisation of port management. More capable leadership is in place in many key institutions, and progress is being made in restoring these institutions from the destruction of state capture.
This turn of events has taken seasoned political analysts by surprise. In a recent talk, Simon Freemantle, award-winning Standard Bank political analyst, said we are now on a ‘high road’ post-election scenario – one he hadn’t foreseen pre-election. I’ve heard similar comments from respected political analysts.
Yet, we remain sceptical. And we have reason to be. We’ve been burned by Ramaphoria before, and we aren’t confident that this time will be different. However, this lack of confidence is what holds us back as a nation; it stands in the way of unlocking the capital tied up in the private sector's ‘wait-and-see’ cash piles.
While we expect interest rates to fall and fuel prices to decline, current economic forecasts still reflect large-scale scepticism. However, I think it’s worth considering the potential positive outcomes if just some of the current plans and projects become reality.
What will happen to those forecasts if we start believing that there could be positive change?
For so long, the ordinary people of our country have become accustomed to making ends meet while facing the headwinds of government destruction. What if that destruction stopped? What if the political environment stabilised? What if we started seeing progress?
Successful scenario planning must consider more than just worst-case outcomes. It must also plan for stable or even positive scenarios. Our scepticism, while understandable, can sometimes stand in the way of progress, too. Are we collectively prepared for the possibility of continued positive change?
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Kind regards,
Sunél