News

The past quarter witnessed a significant global interest rate reduction, a move that has positively impacted the economy. 

Closer to home, South Africa continues to be surprised by positive developments from the Government of National Unity. 

Artificial intelligence continues to dominate the world’s financial markets as a theme. The second quarter saw more gains from the Magnificent Seven. However, other themes featured too: the interest rate outlook, particularly the timing of the first interest rate cuts around the world, and political developments, specifically around election outcomes.

In South Africa, the absence of loadshedding and the establishment of a government of national unity were seen as supportive of financial markets and boosted sentiment.

Global financial markets posted strong results in the quarter ending June 2024, with record highs seen in the US, UK, and South Africa. Towards the end of the quarter, UK and European markets became nervous ahead of national elections in the UK and France.

In the final quarter of 2023, global equity markets were buoyed by declining interest rate expectations. In the first quarter of 2024, equity markets delivered impressive returns despite interest rate expectations increasing. 

There was a surprisingly strong performance from most financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2023. Positive sentiment was driven by falling inflation and an unexpectedly dovish rhetoric from central bankers, particularly the US Federal Reserve.

It has been a difficult quarter for investors, with no respite following the quarter’s end. What were the three biggest themes of this financial quarter, and how did our investments perform?
 

Q2 has been somewhat uneventful. Effects of previous events have continued to characterise the most recent quarter with the war in Ukraine, inflation, and interest rates continuing to make headlines globally. Locally, load shedding continued which impacted economic growth, and the currency.  

The first quarter of 2023 kept us on the edge of our seats. Globally, tight monetary conditions are starting to impact the stability of the banking sector. Locally, it was shades of grey. First a grey-listing and then more darkness for the country.

In Topline, our house review of developments in financial markets over the past quarter, we summarise what the main themes in the economy were, and what we can expect from this first quarter of 2023.

What were the main themes in the economy during the third quarter of 2022, and what can be expected in the last part of this year? 

What were the main themes in the economy during the second quarter of 2022, and what can be expected in the second half of this year? 

The first quarter of 2022 was characterised by a reversal of trends and surprising winners. The USA raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 following months of speculation. But have they left it too late? 

Local elections, inflation and the threat of a new variant grabbed most of the headlines as we ended off 2021. Governments across the world diverged, and continue to, on their approach to both the Covid pandemic as well as their stance on monetary policy. The effectiveness of covid-zero policies in countries like China & Australia has been questioned as other countries start planning for a world where Covid is part of reality. Policymakers have also battled to curb inflation and the divergence across countries will only become clearer as the year moves along. Let’s have a look at some of the major headlines that are driving markets.

This quarter was defined by riots in South Africa which pushed the country to the brink of a total shutdown. Covid maintains its influence on our lives, we saw some major regulation changes in China that sent markets into a frenzy, and some headwinds ahead as rising inflation remains a contentious topic. Read more here.

When we planned this quarterly feedback, things were looking better in South Africa – business confidence was at an eight-year high boosted by significant gains in the fight against corruption, the South African equity market outperformed global markets for the first half of this year and the Rand was at its strongest levels in years...

Markets raced off to a good start in 2021, building on from 2020.  The sustainability of the pace will, however, be determined by the continued global success of vaccination roll-outs. This quarter will be pivotal in determining whether we can achieve a Covid-free second half of 2021, at least in some parts of the world.

We believe that our clients’ needs regarding financial markets have changed.  There is now so much credible information available about financial markets, that our time and energy needs to focus on where we can best add value within that context.  However, we are also aware that our clients would like to know what our informed review and analysis is...

The third quarter of 2019 saw markets give up some of the gains made in the first half of the year. Oil jumped and retreated after an attack on a Saudi Arabian oil plant. Global markets are not sure what to make of the tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China. Locally, we...

South Africa participated in the global equities rally as the United States confirmed that there will be no more interest rate hikes in 2019. Equity markets around the globe cheered the news with double digit growth achieved in most emerging market countries for 2019. Uncertainty has become a part of our everyday lives with the developed world leading the ...

Recoveries, Buybacks and Politics The start of 2019 has seen most investors relieved by the recovery experienced on all fronts following a tough end to 2018. Markets bounced back sharply erasing most of the losses incurred in the fourth quarter. For investors that stayed the course the effects of 2018 are now negligible.  For those that jumped ...

“Aren’t we glad that 2018 is behind us? That said – we’re all asking if there’s light at the end of the tunnel or if that’s actually a train approaching?”

Quaterly market review, Q2 of 2018.

“With all the political noise detracting from economic fundamentals, it is easy to think we are in a downward spiral. Compared to mid-December 2017, we believe we are on the right track building South Africa up to where it should be”

-By Thiart van der Merwe - As we ended off 2017, the headlines were dominated by the ANC leadership race. It came down to two candidates who represented different factions within the ANC. In the end Ramaphosa edged out a marginal victory over Dlamini-Zuma. The Rand subsequently strengthened by more than 11% as investors welcomed a business-friendly ...

-By Thiart van Der Merwe - Quarter 3 Review There’s been a rally in SA equities in the last quarter. Some sectors have done really well. If we compare the returns to the rest of the world however, we are lagging. Why? Own goals on the political front. Against our Emerging Market peers, we have underperformed by more ...

A quarter marred by political instability: First Quarter 2017 Review.

“There are decades where nothing happens, and then there are weeks where decades happen.” Vladimir Lenin.

This quarter we faced unanswered questions on Brexit, entered a new era of politics in the USA, and changed guard at local, municipal level.

“Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.” This famous saying by Jim Cramer pretty much sums up the second quarter of 2016, more specifically the last week of June.

While it is always difficult to predict where we were heading at the beginning of 2016, we could feel a bit more optimistic than we were at the start of the year. The constitution held up and a big victory for our democracy as the message was clear, no one is above the law in ...

2015 was a tough year for markets around the world. The Rand crumbled to an all-time low. The currency lost 35% during the year and as at 31 December one dollar could get you R15.58 (compared to R11.56 at the beginning of the year). The only upside of this was that global investments held in dollars ...

The third quarter of 2015 presented challenging market conditions. Global equity markets declined by 11% measured in US Dollars. According to the MSCI Index this is the worst performance since the third quarter in 2011, when markets declined by over 20%. South African equities declined by 2% in local currency terms but by 17% in ...